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灾害、衍生和次生灾害及其相互耦合使得灾情恶化,作为灾害对抗力量的抢险、避险、控制的救险等措施使得灾害向灾情减轻的方向转化,本文对灾害的这一动态演化过程进行描述,建立一种综合考虑灾害的自然演化与抢险救灾行动的基于Bayes推理的灾害演化GERT(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique)网络模型;把GERT网络方法和贝叶斯推理工具相结合,根据获得的新信息,对GERT网络中活动参数进行动态修正,对灾害的演化路径,各种主要状态的演化概率和时间进行动态预测、预警与评价;对衍生与次生灾害、抢险救灾行动等外界行为对系统演化的影响进行定性与定量分析,并给出定量评价结论。本文提供了灾害演化定性与定量结合的分析框架与工具,揭示灾害演化机理,为灾害发展态势的预测、预警与评价提供了一种新的研究方法和研究思路。
Disasters, derivative and secondary disasters and their mutual coupling make the disaster worsened. As a disaster rescue force rescue, hedging, controlled rescue and other measures to make the disaster to reduce the disaster direction, this article on the dynamic evolution of disaster Describe and establish a network evolution model of GERT (Graph Evaluation and Review Technique) based on Bayes inference which comprehensively considers the natural evolution of disaster and rescue and relief operations. Combining GERT network with Bayesian inference tools, Information on the dynamic parameters of the GERT network dynamic correction of the evolution path of the disaster, a variety of major states of the evolutionary probability and time of the dynamic prediction, early warning and evaluation; for derivative and secondary disasters, disaster relief operations and other external behavior on the system The evolution of the impact of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and quantitative evaluation conclusions. This article provides the analytical framework and tools for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the evolution of disasters, reveals the mechanism of disaster evolution and provides a new research method and research ideas for the prediction, early warning and evaluation of disaster development.