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在安全评价中,专家给出的数据一般带有定性和定量、模糊性和随机性、不确定性等特点。为了表示这些特点,并将这些信息进行分析、合并,进而达到化简的目的,提出一种基于包络线的云模型方法。该方法用云模型表示专家对某一问题给定的数据,形成多位专家对该问题的多个云模型。同时根据云模型形态特点,构建云模型的上下包络线,并对包络线之间的云滴区域进行积分。最终通过积分区域重叠部分与积分区域的比例关系来判断云模型的相似程度,达到将这些专家信息化简的目的。给出了4种基于相似度的评价语义化简规则。应用该方法分析巷道冒顶风险中稳定岩层距巷道顶板表面距离的中度风险语义。结果表明,两位专家对于该问题的看法既有联系又有区别。最后给出了该算法的优点。
In the safety evaluation, the data given by experts are generally qualitative and quantitative, fuzzy and random, uncertainty and so on. In order to express these characteristics, and to analyze, merge and further simplify the information, a cloud model based on envelope is proposed. This method uses the cloud model to represent the data given by an expert to a certain problem and forms multiple cloud models of experts on the problem. At the same time, according to the morphological characteristics of the cloud model, the upper and lower envelopes of the cloud model are constructed, and the cloud drop regions between the envelopes are integrated. Finally, the similarity degree of the cloud model is judged by the proportional relationship between the overlapping part of the integral region and the integral region, and the purpose of simplifying the information of these experts is achieved. Four kinds of evaluation semantic simplification rules based on similarity are given. This method is used to analyze the moderate risk semantics of the distance between stable rock strata and the roof surface of roadway in roof fall risk. The results show that the two experts have both the connection and the difference in their opinions on the issue. Finally, the advantages of this algorithm are given.