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改进的疲劳模型强调了抗震性能的统计相关性,这是从所有普遍但是未知的影响因素中归纳出来的。提出的模型通过个体试件极限状态计算公式的一般变量来考虑相关性。此外,连续地震中对同一个构件的观察结果也具有相关性,在评估建模参数时,考虑了这个事实。通过变电站设备失效的一系列算例证实,改进的公式可以导致与经验结论明显不同的预测结果。此外,传统方法低估了疲劳估测相关的统计不确定性。对统计的不确定性效果和系统疲劳性进行了总结,数值算例证明这些影响很明显,并且需要在冗余系统中加以考虑。
The improved fatigue model emphasizes the statistical correlation of seismic performance, which is derived from all common but unknown factors. The proposed model considers the correlation by the general variable of the formula for the calculation of the ultimate state of the individual specimen. In addition, the observations of the same component in a series of earthquakes are also correlated, and this fact is taken into account when evaluating the modeling parameters. A series of examples of substation equipment failures confirm that improved formulas can lead to significantly different predictions than empirical findings. In addition, traditional methods underestimate the statistical uncertainty associated with fatigue estimation. The effects of statistical uncertainty and system fatigue are summarized, numerical examples demonstrate that these effects are obvious and need to be considered in redundant systems.