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本文依据河北省1952～84年麻疹疫情资料,应用“松田模型”初步探讨麻疹疫情动态的预测,现报告如下。“松田模型”及预测方法预测麻疹季节性高峰和流行年的数学模型(松田模型): 麻疹的预测指数X=(C_n+A_n+1)/B_n×100 B_n:去年3～8月份患者总数(流行期)。 C_n:去年9～12月份患者总数(流行间期)。
Based on the epidemiological data of measles from 1952 to 1984 in Hebei Province, this paper uses the “Matsuda Model” to preliminary investigate the prediction of the epidemic situation of measles. The report is as follows. (Matsuda model): Forecast index of measles X = (C_n + A_n + 1) / B_n × 100 B_n: The total number of patients from March to August of last year (Matsuda model) and forecasting method Prediction of the seasonal peak and epidemic year of measles Popular period). C_n: total number of patients from September to December last year (epidemic interval).