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为解决地震灾害风险评价中存在的模糊性和不确定性问题,基于地震危险性、社会敏感性、承载脆弱性和震害应急性构建综合评价体系,引入正态云模型进行求解。以毕节市为例,分析其地震灾害风险正态云模型数值特征,得到各区县多级指标评价结果。实例分析表明,毕节市全局地震灾害风险属中等水平,各区县间呈现“西北-东南”风险等级递减规律;地震灾害高风险区为威宁县和七星关区,低风险区为大方县和黔西县,其余区县介于两者之间。
In order to solve the fuzziness and uncertainty problems in the risk assessment of earthquake disaster, a comprehensive evaluation system based on seismic hazard, social sensitivity, bearing vulnerability and earthquake damage emergency is built and normal cloud model is introduced to solve the problem. Taking Bijie City as an example, the numerical characteristics of the normal cloud model of earthquake disaster risk are analyzed, and the evaluation results of multi-level indexes in each district and county are obtained. The case study shows that the risk of global earthquake disaster in Bijie City is of medium level, and the decreasing order of “Northwest-Southeast” risks among all districts and counties; the high risk areas of earthquake disasters are Weining County and Qixingguan District; the low risk areas are Dafang County and Qianxi County, the remaining area between the two.