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[目的 ]分析 1990～ 1999年我国城市和农村居民糖尿病死亡率的现况特点并预测未来 5年的变化趋势。 [方法 ]根据《全国卫生统计年报》资料 ,对我国 1990至 1999年糖尿病死亡率的现况进行流行病学分析 ,并利用灰色动态模型GM( 1 1)预测我国 2 0 0 0至 2 0 0 5年城市和农村糖尿病死亡率趋势。[结果 ]城市 1999年糖尿病死亡率为 15 3 7/ 10万而农村为5 13 / 10万 ,分别是 1990年死亡率的 1 89倍和 1 71倍 ;女性的死亡率高于男性 ,城市和农村男女死亡率之比分别为 0 63∶1和0 76∶1;根据 1990～ 1999死亡率所建立的城市的灰色模型预测方程为 ^Xt=-10 6.4817× ( 1-e0 .0 7458t) -Yt-1(t =1,2 ,...,N) ,而农村的方程为 ^Xt=-3 3 .60 5 3× ( 1-e0 .0 753 7t) -Yt-1(t=1,2 ,...,N) ;预测到 2 0 0 5年我国城市和农村糖尿病死亡率将分别达到 2 5 2 4/ 10万人和 8 15 / 10万人 ;精度检验证明了城市和农村的预测模型拟合良好而外推测值可信。 [结论 ]我国人群糖尿病死亡率上升趋势明显 ,提示有关部门应加强防治力度 ;灰色模型GM( 1 1)能够较好地预测糖尿病死亡率的近期变化趋势。
[Objective] To analyze the current status of diabetes mortality among urban and rural residents in China from 1990 to 1999 and predict the trend of changes in the next five years. [Methods] According to the National Health Statistics Annual Report, epidemiological analysis of the current status of diabetes mortality in China from 1990 to 1999, and the use of gray dynamic model GM (11) to predict China’s 20000 to 20000 Five-year trends in urban and rural diabetes mortality. [Results] In 1999, the city’s diabetes mortality rate was 15 3 7 / 100,000 and that of rural areas was 5 13 / 100,000, which was 189 times and 183 times higher than the 1990 death rate respectively. The mortality rate of women was higher than that of men, urban and The ratio of male and female mortality in rural areas is 0 63:1 and 0 76:1 respectively; the grey model prediction equation for urban areas established based on 1990-1999 mortality rates is ^Xt=-10 6.4817× ( 1-e0 .0 7458t) − Yt-1 (t =1,2,...,N), while the rural equation is ^Xt=-3 3 .60 5 3× ( 1-e0 .0 753 7t) -Yt-1 (t=1 ,2 ,...,N) ; It is predicted that the mortality rate of diabetes in urban and rural areas in China will reach 2 524/100,000 and 8 15/100,000 respectively; accuracy test proves that urban and rural areas The prediction model fits well and the extrapolation value is trusted. [Conclusions] The rising trend of diabetes death rate in Chinese population is obvious, suggesting that relevant departments should strengthen prevention and control; the grey model GM (11) can better predict the recent trend of diabetes mortality.