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为获得更符合企业实际的安全仪表系统(SIS)设备失效率,应用贝叶斯方法,以海上平台可靠性数据手册(OREDA.)数据库信息作为设备失效率先验信息,综合先验信息、企业收集的相关设备样本信息和蒙特卡洛方法仿真的企业样本信息,得到设备失效率贝叶斯估计。并以某石化装置为例,分别将设备失效率的贝叶斯估计和数据库信息代入不同模型进行安全完整性等级(SIL)验证并对比。结果表明,通过贝叶斯方法获得的设备失效率更为合理,使系统由SIL3降为SIL2。
In order to obtain the equipment failure rate that is more suitable for the actual safety instrumented system (SIS) of enterprises, Bayesian method is used to take the OREDA database information as priori information of equipment failure rate, a priori information, business collection The information of the relevant equipment samples and the sample information of the Monte Carlo method simulation are obtained by Bayes estimation of equipment failure rate. Taking a petrochemical plant as an example, the Bayesian estimation of equipment failure rate and database information were substituted into different models for safety integrity level (SIL) verification and comparison respectively. The results show that the device failure rate obtained by the Bayesian method is more reasonable and the system is reduced from SIL3 to SIL2.