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依据网民关系网络拓扑的小世界效应特性,提出网民观点的倾向度转换规则,在网络舆情网民关系小世界网络矩阵表示的基础上,构建基于小世界效应的网络舆情演化迁移元胞模型,运用该模型分析网络舆情演化,产生了倾向度转换图、粗细粒度倾向度曲线的仿真结果.通过对试验仿真结果的分析,揭示了网络舆情演化的观点极分化和观点漂移的现象,分析了“核心”区域漂移现象和倾向度曲线多波峰现象的成因,仿真结果表明该模型能较好拟合网络舆情演化的规律.本研究对网络监察部门和新闻管理部门的管理提供了一定的理论依据.
Based on the small-world effect of the network topology of netizens, this paper puts forward the rule of propensity conversion from the viewpoints of netizens. Based on the network matrix representation of small-world networks of netizens, this paper builds a cellular model of evolution of network public opinion based on the small world effect. The model analyzes the evolution of network public opinions, and produces the simulation results of propensity degree conversion diagram and coarse-grained granularity trend curve.By analyzing the experimental simulation results, this paper reveals the phenomenon of extreme polarization and viewpoint drift of network public opinion evolution, "The causes of multi-peak phenomenon of regional drift and trend curve show that the model can better fit the law of network public opinion evolution.This study provides some theoretical basis for the management of network supervision department and news management department.