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针对施工导流期间上游围堰堰前水位的概率分布,应用了一类以概率守恒原理为理论基础的概率密度演化思想和方法.在分析水文和水力不确定性的基础上,根据水库蓄量平衡关系,建立了堰前水位分布的广义概率密度演化方程.以某水电工程为例,通过数值求解带有7个随机变量的广义概率密度演化方程,得到了堰前水位分布的概率密度函数曲线,并根据该曲线随时间的演化规律,分析了堰前水位的涨落趋势和涨落速度,发现在水文和水力随机因素的综合影响下,水位分布大体呈对称多峰型,形式上与正态分布相距甚远.
Aiming at the probability distribution of water level in front of cofferdam during the construction diversion, a kind of idea and method of probability density evolution based on the theory of probability conservation is applied. Based on the analysis of hydrological and hydraulic uncertainties, Equilibrium relationship, the generalized probability density evolution equation of the water level distribution in front of the weir is established. Taking a hydropower project as an example, the probability density function curve of the water level distribution in front of the weir is obtained by numerical solution of the generalized probability density evolution equation with seven random variables According to the evolution law of the curve with time, the trend and fluctuation of the water level in front of the weir are analyzed. It is found that under the combined influence of hydrological and hydro-random factors, the water level distribution is generally symmetrical and multimodal, State distribution far apart.