敏感性分析表明,京津城际铁路现金流和盈亏平衡关键年度对收入和成本变化不敏感,但对运量和资本金比例非常敏感,这说明京津城际铁路及我国铁路产业面临财务风险的根源在于铁路投资建设的规模和强度,有必要出台扶持政策帮助铁路渡过困难期,预防可能出现的风险。 Sensitivity analysis shows that the key years of cash flow and breakeven in Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway are insensitive to the changes in revenue and costs, but are very sensitive to the volume and capital ratio. This shows that the Beijing-Tianjin inter-city railways and the railway industry in China are facing financial risks The root cause lies in the scale and intensity of railway investment and construction. It is necessary to introduce affirmative policies to help the railway to pass the difficult period and prevent any possible risks.