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研究表明,在自然发展情况下,慢性病及其治疗费用将有较大增长,患病率将由1993年的152‰增加到2030年的656‰;慢性病治疗费用将由1994年的418亿元增加到2030年的148947亿元;卫生费用占GDP的百分比将由1994年的3.2％增加到203O年的24％。如果加强慢性病的社区预防,卫生费用占GDP的百分比可控制在2030年的13％;如果加强社区医疗,这一百分比可控制在15％左右;如果双管齐下,这一百分比可控制在8.8％左右。本研究提出了加强城市社区慢性病防治工作的建议,并提出了加强组织建设,实行投资倾斜和进行需求输导的战略措施。
Research shows that under natural development conditions, the cost of chronic diseases and their treatment will increase significantly. The prevalence rate will increase from 152‰ in 1993 to 656‰ in 2030; the cost of treating chronic diseases will increase from 41.8 billion yuan in 1994 to 2030. In the year of 1,484.7 billion yuan, the health expenditure as a percentage of GDP will increase from 3.2% in 1994 to 24% in 2030. If community prevention of chronic diseases is strengthened, the health expenditure as a percentage of GDP can be controlled at 13% in 2030; if community health care is strengthened, this percentage can be controlled at about 15%; if the two-pronged approach is adopted, this percentage can be controlled at about 8.8%. This study puts forward proposals for strengthening prevention and treatment of chronic diseases in urban communities and proposes strategic measures to strengthen organizational development, implement investment tilt, and conduct demand transmission.