为了解分布式水文物理模型BTOPMC参数不确定性对模拟精度和预测结果的影响程度,以湄公河为例,采用GLUE方法对BTOPMC参数的不确定性进行了研究。在选定参数的先验分布为均匀分布的基础上,选择用累计似然分布的5%和95%的评价作为预测不确定性的界限,得到90%置信区间的降雨径流(洪水)过程线。结果表明,大部分时段实测洪水流量都落在了90%置信区间之内,说明采用GLUE方法对BTOPMC模型的参数进行不确定性分析是可行的。 In order to understand the impact of uncertainty of parameters of distributed hydrological physical model (BTOPMC) on simulation accuracy and forecasting results, taking the Mekong as an example, the uncertainty of BTOPMC parameters was studied by GLUE method. On the basis of the prior distribution of the selected parameters, we choose 5% and 95% of the cumulative likelihood distribution as the limit of prediction uncertainty, and get the 90% confidence interval of rainfall runoff (flood) process line . The results show that the measured flood flow falls most of the time within the 90% confidence interval, which shows that it is feasible to use GLUE method to carry out the uncertainty analysis of the parameters of BTOPMC model.