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目的通过对天津港2010年所有入境国际航行船舶资料进行分析,找出影响船舶卫生状况的风险因素,并建立数学模型。方法利用AMOS建立数学模型,应用主成分分析与多元回归方法对资料进行统计分析,最终得到国际航行船舶卫生风险数学模型。结果筛选船员国籍、船舶经营者、来自疾病流行区、月份、船龄等16个危险因素,建立了结构方程模型。结论通过建立影响国际航行船舶卫生风险的数学模型,使入境国际航行船舶卫生风险定量化。
Objective To analyze the data of all international ships entering and entering the country by Tianjin Port in 2010 so as to find out the risk factors that affect the health conditions of ships and to establish a mathematical model. Methods The mathematical model was established by using AMOS. The principal component analysis and multivariate regression were used to analyze the data, and finally the mathematical model of health risks of ships in international navigation was obtained. Results Sixteen risk factors, including nationality of the crew, ship operators, epidemic areas, months and age, were selected and structural equation models were established. Conclusion By establishing a mathematical model that affects the health risks of ships in international navigation, the health risks of inbound and outbound ships are quantified.