基于俄罗斯洪水随机模拟模型,采用线型优化技术,选用淮河流域上游的息县站构建模型模拟,统计检验了建模参数、时段量,并与传统季节性自回归一阶模型进行模拟比较。结果表明,线型优选后的俄罗斯模型模拟效果好、精度高、适用性强,在模拟多场洪水方面优于传统模型。 Based on the Russian flood stochastic simulation model, a linear optimization technique was used. The model was constructed by using the Xiuxian station upstream of the Huaihe River basin. The modeling parameters and time periods were statistically tested and compared with the traditional seasonal autoregressive first-order model. The results show that the Russian model with good linearity has good simulation results, high precision and applicability. It is superior to the traditional model in simulating multiple floods.