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中国面临的水危机表现之一为黄淮海流域片的灌溉用水危机。减少流域片高耗水作物种植,调整农业产业结构被认为是解决灌溉水危机的重要手段。本文分析了未来黄淮海流域片种植结构变化对区域灌溉需水的影响。结果表明,如果不采取提高灌溉水价等新的灌溉用水政策,流域片播种面积在全国总播种面积下降的情况下还会增加。种植结构调整引起流域片灌溉需水总量增长而不是减少。如果没有新的水资源管理办法,减少黄淮海流域片高耗水作物种植的政策可能会难以落到实处。
One of the water crises that China faces is the crisis of irrigation water supply in the Huang-Huai-Hai basin. Reduce the high water-cut crop planted in the watershed, adjust the agricultural structure is considered an important means to solve the crisis of irrigation water. In this paper, the influence of the planting structure change in Huang-Huai-Hai watershed on the regional irrigation water requirement is analyzed. The results show that if no new water policy for irrigation, such as irrigation water price, is adopted, the sown area of paddy watersheds will also increase if the total sown area of the country is declining. The adjustment of planting structure caused the total water demand of paddy irrigation to increase rather than decrease. Without a new approach to water management, policies to reduce high-water-crop cultivation in the Huang-Huai-Hai basin may be difficult to implement.