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论文基于江苏省淮安市和连云港市沼气池使用户调查数据,运用Probit模型考察农户沼肥还田决策行为的影响因素,构建产出供给方程评价农户沼肥还田决策行为的经济效应。结果表明:沼气池使用天数越多、户主年龄越小、户主是村干部或农民专业合作社成员以及人均承包地越多的农户,越倾向于选择沼肥还田,而家庭总资产较少或较多的农户都不愿意选择沼肥还田。控制其他条件,农户沼肥还田可能性每增加1%,单位面积农地产值提高0.07%(10.81元/hm~2),若研究区域沼气池使用户全部选择沼肥还田,单位面积农地产值将提高356.55元/hm~2,具有一定的经济效应,倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)的稳健性分析进一步证实这一结论。目前中国沼肥还田率总体不高且没有规范的沼肥还田管理项目,进而提出鼓励沼气池使用户充分利用沼气池,提高农户沼肥还田积极性的政策建议。
Based on the survey data of biogas digesters in Huai’an City and Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, Probit model was used to investigate the influencing factors of decision-making behavior of biogas fertilizer returning to farmland and the economic effect of output-supply equation to evaluate decision-making behavior of biogas fertilizer returning to rural households was established. The results showed that the more digesters were used, the smaller the head of household, the head of household was a member of village cadres or farmer cooperatives, and the more farmer contracted land was, the more inclined to choose biogas return to farmland. However, the total household assets were less or more Many farmers are reluctant to choose biogas return. For each additional 1% increase in the probability of returning man-made biogas to farmland, the value of farmland per unit area increased by 0.07% (10.81 yuan / hm2). If the users of biogas-digesters in the study area all chose to return to biogas, the unit area of farmers The real estate value will increase by 356.55 yuan / hm ~ 2, which has certain economic effect. The stability analysis of propensity score matching method (PSM) further confirms this conclusion. At present, the rate of biogas return to marshland in China is generally not high and there is no standard management of biogas fertilizer to be returned to the field, and further policy suggestions are proposed to encourage biogas digesters to make full use of biogas digesters and to increase their enthusiasm for returning farmland to biogas plants.