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水贫困评价是当今水科学的新领域。本文介绍了水贫困的研究概况,界定了水贫困概念,将水贫困分为自然水贫困和经济社会水贫困两个层面。依据牛津大学水贫困指标框架,适当添加反映社会适应性能力的指标,建立了由资源、设施、能力、使用和环境5个子系统综合而成的水贫困评价体系,利用综合赋权法对各子系统内部进行加权,并用动态层次分析法赋予各子系统不同时期的权值,体现了利用社会资源对水资源稀缺的适应性逐渐提高的现实。对1997年-2008年中国31个省(市)的水贫困水平进行计算和评价,并运用空间自相关分析方法进行分析。研究结果表明:北方地区自然水资源贫乏但是使用效率较高,东部地区的使用能力和设施水平普遍较高,经济发展较好的地区能更多关注环境保护,西部地区在各个子系统得分普遍较低;无论是自然水贫困还是经济社会水贫困都存在高度的全局空间自相关现象,水贫困分布没有从根本上摆脱自然资源稀缺的束缚,依然呈现南北分划的态势。
Assessment of water poverty is a new area of water science today. This paper introduces the research status of water poverty and defines the concept of water poverty, which divides water poverty into two categories: natural water poverty and economic and social water poverty. According to the Oxford University Water Poverty Indicators framework, the indicators of social resilience are added as appropriate, and a water poverty evaluation system composed of five subsystems of resources, facilities, capacity, use and environment is established, The internal weight of the system, and the use of dynamic analytic hierarchy process to give the weights of different subsystems in different periods, reflects the reality of the adaptability of social resources to water scarcity gradually increased. The water poverty level of 31 provinces (cities) in China from 1997 to 2008 was calculated and evaluated, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis method was used to analyze. The results show that the natural water resources in northern China are poor but their efficiency is relatively high. The capacity and facilities in the eastern region are generally high, and the regions with better economic development can pay more attention to environmental protection. The scores in various subsystems in the western region are generally higher than those in other regions There is a high degree of global spatial autocorrelation in both natural water and economic and social water poverty. The distribution of water poverty has not fundamentally got rid of the shackles of natural resources and still shows the trend of north-south division.