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在控制消费习惯形成因素基础上,采用OLS和双胞胎组内差分法,就真实的预防性储蓄动机强度的估计以及消费者异质性与预防性储蓄动机的关系提出了一个基本分析思路。从中国国情出发,建立了预防性储蓄动机实证模型,并试图通过微观数据的搜集,分析消费者异质性与预防性储蓄动机强度的关系。通过比较同卵双胞胎数据的组内差分估计、异卵双胞胎数据的组内差分估计与混合OLS的估计结果,得出真实的预防性储蓄动机强度、不可观测的个体储蓄行为导致的预防性储蓄动机强度与消费习惯形成下的预防性储蓄动机强度。
On the basis of controlling the formation of consumption habit, this paper presents a basic analysis idea based on the OLS and twins intra-group difference method, the estimation of the real preventive saving motivation intensity and the relationship between consumer heterogeneity and preventive saving motivation. Based on China’s national conditions, this paper established an empirical model of preventive saving motivation and tried to analyze the relationship between consumer heterogeneity and preventive saving motivation intensity through the collection of micro-data. By comparing the in-group differential estimates of identical twins data and the in-group differential estimates of fraternal twins data with the results of mixed OLS estimates, we obtained the true prophylactic savings motivation intensity and the unpredictable individual saving behavior’s preventive saving motivation Intensity of Preventive Saving Motivation Intensity with Consumption Habits.