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基于城镇居民的平均消费倾向下滑等经验观察,借助于Euler方程的＂天然＂正交条件,直接采用GMM方法对城镇居民的相对谨慎系数进行了分区跨期测度。实证结果表明,我国城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机较强,总体波动呈现倒U型结构,且地区间差异显著。因此,在居民存在较强的预防性储蓄动机的情况下,如果能够减少城镇居民未来支出的不确定性,收入分配改革可能会取得更好的效果。“,”Based on the empirical-observations of the declining of urban residents＇ average consumption,then depending on the Euler equations＇ ＂natural＂ orthogonal condition,this paper uses GMM Method to measure the precautionary savings motive of Chinese urban residents in the various regions by time division.The empirical results show that there is not a strong precautionary saving motive in Chinese urban residents.The fluctuations of precautionary saving motives show an inverted ＂U＂-type structure,and the various regions have significant differences.This paper explains the strong motive and fluctuation of Chinese urban residents＇ precautionary savings,then proposes that if we can reduce the uncertainty of urban residents＇ future spending,the income distribution reform will may get better results.