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本文以金融资产泡沫风险的同步变量构成的中国金融资产泡沫压力指数为被解释变量,采用Granger因果检验方法,检验出与金融资产泡沫压力指数有因果关系的指标后,以遴选出的宏观经济变量、房地产价格变量和资产价格变量为解释变量,运用逐步回归法建立了金融资产泡沫风险最佳预测模型,从而构建起了合理、实用的金融资产泡沫风险预警指标体系,形成连续的资产泡沫压力指数走势图;并用此最优预测模型对我国2011年金融资产泡沫风险状况进行了预测。预测结果表明,前三季度我国金融系统性风险呈上升态势,即存在资产泡沫风险。
In this paper, we use the Granger causality test to measure the causal relationship between the financial asset bubble pressure index and the financial asset bubble pressure index, and select the macroeconomic variables , Real estate price variable and asset price variable as explanatory variables, and establishes the best prediction model of financial asset bubble risk by using stepwise regression, so as to construct a reasonable and practical indicator system of early warning index of financial asset bubble risk and form a continuous index of asset bubble pressure And use this optimal forecasting model to predict the risk of financial assets bubble in 2011 in China. The forecast results show that the first three quarters of China’s financial systemic risk is on the rise, that is, there is an asset bubble risk.