论文部分内容阅读
侦测重大地震前相关的地震活动度异常,以此作为地震预测基础理论的研究,在近十年内常被提出讨论。其中有两个典型的算法,包括美国加州Rundle教授的“震模信息学”算法和北京尹祥础教授的“加卸载响应比值”算法。前者旨在揭示地震活动度的高异常变异性;后者则藉助于日、月引力的响应,来研究地壳块体的受损程度。文章从“临界转变理论”出发,认为不管是高异常地震活动度变异,或是象征地壳材料已严重受损的高加卸载响应比值,都是地壳即将出现临界转变(亦即重大地震)的早期征兆。也就是说,原由两个独立研究群体提出的地震活动度算法,实为临界转变的前兆信号的一体两面,可以在临界转变理论下统一起来。
The detection of anomalous seismic activity related to major earthquakes is often discussed as a basic theory of earthquake prediction in the past decade. There are two typical algorithms, including Professor Rundle’s Calculus Information Science in California, USA and Professor Yin Xiang-Chu’s “Load-Unload Response Ratio” algorithm in California. The former aims to reveal the high degree of anomalous variability of seismic activity; the latter uses the daily and monthly gravitational responses to study the extent of crustal block damage. Based on the theory of critical transition, the article holds that the critical crustal transition (ie, a major earthquake) will occur no matter whether it is a variation in high-anomalous seismic activity or a high unload response ratio, which indicates that crustal material has been severely damaged. Early signs. That is to say, the algorithm of seismic activity, originally proposed by two independent research groups, is actually one of the two sides of the precursory signal of critical transition, which can be unified under the theory of critical transition.