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全球气候变化是当今世界关注的环境问题。与全球气候变暖紧密相连的国际条约《京都议定书》一直以来被世人所关注。而清洁发展机制(简称CDM)是《京都议定书》所建立的以成本有效的方式在全球范围内实施温室气体减排的3种灵活机制之一。它是发达国家与发展中国家基于项目的合作形式。推行该机制不仅可减少发达国家在国内实施碳减排的高额成本,又可促进发展中国家获得有益于可持续发展的先进技术和急需资金。被认为是一种“双赢”政策。该文从中国CDM项目市场占全球份额的角度,在假设2010年所有非附件Ⅰ国家CDM项目实施率为70%的情景下,分析得出2010年中国基于清洁发展机制开发碳市场的规模是0.525×108tC,相应的碳市场潜力为8.306×108美元(美元以2000年价计)。同时认为:可再生能源发电、城市生活垃圾处理处置、造林与再造林领域是中国基于清洁发展机制开发碳市场的主要领域。
Global climate change is an environmental issue of concern to the world today. The “Kyoto Protocol”, an international treaty closely linked with global warming, has long been the concern of the world. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the three flexible mechanisms established by the Kyoto Protocol to implement global greenhouse gas emission reductions in a cost-effective manner. It is a project-based form of cooperation between developed and developing countries. The implementation of this mechanism will not only reduce the high cost of carbon emission reductions in developed countries at home, but also help developing countries acquire advanced technologies and urgently needed funds that are conducive to sustainable development. It is considered a “win-win” policy. From the perspective of the global share of China’s CDM project market, this article assumes that in 2010, the implementation rate of all non-Annex I countries’ CDM projects was 70%. The analysis shows that the scale of China’s development of a carbon market based on the CDM in 2010 is 0.525. ×108tC, the corresponding carbon market potential is 8.306×108 USD (US$ is based on the price in 2000). At the same time, it is believed that renewable energy power generation, municipal solid waste treatment and disposal, and afforestation and reforestation are the main areas for China’s development of a carbon market based on the Clean Development Mechanism.