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株树桥水库流域为雨源型河流,属于湿润地区,其预报方案选择三水源新安江模型,参数优选方法应用采用罗森布洛克法、基因法和单纯形法进行自动参数优选。文章介绍了新安江模型的结构,分析了三种优选方法的优缺点,最后选用日资料进行参数优选和径流模拟,模型模拟的效率系数86%,水量平衡系数0.998。结果表明,模型在株树桥水库流域模拟精度高,能够进一步在实际中应用。
The Zhushuqiao reservoir watershed is a rain-sourced river and belongs to the humid area. The forecasting scheme selects the Sinkiang-Xin’anjiang model, and the parameter optimization method uses the Rosenbrook method, genetic method and simplex method for automatic parameter optimization. The article introduced the structure of Xin’anjiang model, analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the three kinds of optimization methods, and selected the daily data for the parameter optimization and runoff simulation. The efficiency coefficient of model simulation is 86% and the water balance coefficient is 0.998. The results show that the model has high simulation accuracy in the Zhushuqiao Reservoir and can be further applied in practice.