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中国光伏组件的制造能力迅速扩张,但因并网价格补贴方案无法保障项目投资者利益,造成“大装备、小装机、低并网”现象的持续存在,因此需要制定可行的电价方案。借鉴资产定价模型拟合项目贴现率,建立光伏上网电价的净现值模型,以此测算并网电价;利用光伏发电成本数据,拟合了技术进步率,模拟“干中学”下的成本效应,从而得到逐年递减的光伏上网指导电价曲线,以此设计电价调整方案;综合地区太阳能资源禀赋和建设条件差异,制定分区定价方案,进而通过测算成本因素的敏感性,确定不同补贴政策方案。电价及补贴方案设计为推动我国光电项目的商业化应用提供定价指导和政策建议,从而满足光电项目对减排目标的贡献。
The manufacturing capacity of PV modules in China has rapidly expanded. However, because of the inability of grid price subsidy programs to protect the interests of project investors, resulting in the persistence of the phenomenon of “large equipment, small installed computers and low grid-connected networks”, a viable tariff plan needs to be formulated. Using the asset pricing model to fit the discount rate of the project, the net present value model of photovoltaic grid electricity price is set up to calculate the grid-connected electricity price. The cost of photovoltaic power generation is used to fit the technological progress rate and the simulated cost of “learning by doing” Effect, so as to get the declining PV grid price guideline, so as to design a tariff adjustment plan. Based on the difference of solar energy resource endowment and construction conditions, we can formulate a district pricing scheme and then determine different subsidy policy schemes by measuring the sensitivity of cost factors. Tariff and subsidy program design to promote the commercial application of China’s optoelectronic projects to provide pricing guidelines and policy recommendations to meet the photovoltaic project’s contribution to the emission reduction targets.