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经济增长在险水平 (GaR)和条件标准差 (CSD)能够有效地度量国家经济风险波动的单向性和双向性。利用动态时窗和条件异方差模型 ,我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济周期波动密切相关 ,目前的国家风险状态已经体现出明显的稳定性。利用协整关系检验 ,我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济增长水平之间存在正相关的长期均衡关系 ,因此采取积极经济政策的“反周期”干预 ,所诱发的适度经济波动将有助于经济快速稳定增长。
The level of economic growth risk (GaR) and the standard deviation of conditions (CSD) can effectively measure the one-way and two-way volatility of the national economic risk. Using the dynamic time window and conditional heteroskedasticity model, we find that the national economic risk in our country is closely related to the fluctuation of the economic cycle. The present state of the national risk has shown obvious stability. Using the cointegration test, we find that there exists a positive long-term equilibrium relationship between the national economic risk and the level of economic growth in our country. Therefore, the moderate economic fluctuations induced by the “countercyclical” intervention of active economic policies will contribute to the rapid economic growth Steady growth.