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结合制度变迁理论,在对家庭联产承包责任制制度变革进行理论分析的基础上,本文采用中国1968～1988年31个省份的面板数据,比较了人民公社化和家庭联产承包责任制两种制度框架下人口压力的变化,并研究了两种制度框架下人口压力与经济绩效的关系。我们的研究发现制度变迁对人口压力有显著影响;同时,在适当的制度框架下,人口压力对经济绩效有较为正面的促进作用。我们的研究表明应将制度创新作为实现经济持续增长的主要思路之一。
Based on the theoretical analysis of the change of the household contract responsibility system in light of the institutional change theory, this paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1968 to 1988, compares the people’s communes and the family contract responsibility system The change of population pressure under the institutional framework and the relationship between population pressure and economic performance under the two institutional frameworks. Our study finds that institutional changes have a significant impact on population pressure; at the same time, under appropriate institutional framework, population pressures have a more positive effect on economic performance. Our research shows that institutional innovation should be one of the main ideas to achieve sustained economic growth.