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近年来,麦粉市场上出现的“麦强粉弱”现象,对制粉企业冲击较大,加大了麦粉市场风险,为我国麦粉市场的宏观调控带来压力。本文分析了2009年1月1日至2014年8月7日麦粉市场价格波动的特征,并构建DCC-GARCH模型,分析麦粉市场价格波动的动态关联性。研究结果发现,“麦强粉弱”的现象具有长期性,麦粉市场间的低关联性所造成的市场分割是“麦强粉弱”现象存在的根本原因,并由此提出促进市场一体化的政策建议。
In recent years, the phenomenon of “strong wheat flour and weak flour ” appearing in the market of wheat flour has a greater impact on flour milling enterprises, increasing the risk of wheat flour market and putting pressure on the macro-control of China’s flour market. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the price fluctuation of wheat flour market from January 1, 2009 to August 7, 2014 and constructs the DCC-GARCH model to analyze the dynamic correlation of price fluctuation of wheat flour market. The result shows that the market segmentation caused by the low correlation between the wheat flour market and the long-term phenomenon is the root cause of the weak phenomenon of wheat flour and weak powder, and proposes the promotion Policy recommendations for market integration.