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通过分析2001-2005年兰州市呼吸系统疾病日就诊人数和主要大气污染物的年变化特征,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,在控制人群的长期趋势、节假日效应、星期几效应和气象要素等混杂因素的基础上,定量分析了不同季节兰州市主要大气污染物质量浓度变化与呼吸系统疾病日就诊人数之间的关系.结果表明,兰州市夏、秋季人体呼吸系统疾病受气温、气压等气象要素和其他因素的影响较大,冬、春季受大气污染物的影响较显著,研究兰州市大气污染对人体呼吸系统疾病的影响以冬、春季为主.冬季3种污染物对人体呼吸系统疾病均有一定的影响,春季SO_2和NO_2的影响更明显,当SO_2质量浓度增加10μg/m~3时,呼吸系统疾病影响较大的人群入院人数的相对危险度(RR)依次为:全人群1.015(1.005~1.025),男性1.015(1.001~1.028),<60岁人群1.028(1.011~1.046);当NO_2质量浓度增加10μg/m~3时,影响较大人群人院人数的RR依次为:全人群1.039(1.014~1.066),女性1.050(1.009~1.094),≥60岁人群1.038(1.00l~1.075).兰州市大气污染对人体呼吸系统疾病的影响冬、春季比较显著;冬季3种污染物均有一定的影响,春季SO_2和NO_2对人体呼吸系统疾病日入院人数影响较明显,且冬、春季污染物对人体呼吸系统疾病影响的滞后效应具有一定差异;呼吸系统疾病在冬季时3种污染物均是≥60岁的人群比<60岁的人群敏感,女性比男性敏感;春季时,女性和≥60岁的人群对NO_2敏感,男性和<60岁的人群对SO_2敏感.
By analyzing the characteristics of annual change of respiratory disease days and the main atmospheric pollutants in Lanzhou city from 2001 to 2005, the semiparametric generalized time series additive model was used to study the long-term trend, holiday effect, the day-of-the-week effect and weather Elements and other confounding factors on the basis of the quantitative analysis of Lanzhou City in different seasons the main air pollutant concentration changes and the relationship between the number of respiratory disease visits the results show that summer and autumn in Lanzhou, human respiratory diseases affected by temperature, pressure Such as meteorological elements and other factors have a greater impact, winter and spring are more affected by air pollutants, the impact of air pollution on human respiratory diseases in Lanzhou City in winter and spring-based .In winter, three kinds of pollutants on the human body to breathe Systemic diseases have a certain impact, the impact of SO_2 and NO_2 in spring is more obvious, when the SO 2 mass concentration increased 10μg / m ~ 3, the relative risk (RR) The population 1.015 (1.005-1.025), 1.015 (1.001-1.028) males and 1.028 (1.011-1.046) females <60 years old. When the mass concentration of NO 2 increased 10μg / m 3, The RR of the number of hospitalized people with larger population was 1.039 (1.014-1.066), 1.050 (1.009-1.094) and 1.038 (1.00l ~ 1.075) for those aged 60 and over. The risk of air pollution in Lanzhou City was significantly lower than that of the residents with respiratory diseases The impact of winter and spring is more significant; the three kinds of pollutants in winter have a certain impact, the spring SO_2 and NO_2 on the number of days of human respiratory diseases more obvious impact, and winter and spring pollutants on human respiratory diseases lag effect There were some differences between the two groups. In winter, the three kinds of pollutants were all ≥60 years old were more sensitive than the population aged <60, while the female was more sensitive than the male. In spring, the female and ≥60 years old were sensitive to NO_2, <60-year-old crowd is SO_2 sensitive.