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首先通过建立模型来测算外汇干预对国内货币市场均衡的影响,然后采用VAR模型研究货币市场失衡与干预力度以及货币政策的关系。研究显示,中国利率上升是引起人民币升值的主要原因,且利率政策在调控国内货币市场失衡方面的效果并不好。同时发现,我国货币政策在货币发行方面的独立性较弱,而在利率政策方面的独立性较强。
First, by establishing a model to measure the impact of foreign exchange intervention on the balance of the domestic currency market, and then using the VAR model to study the relationship between monetary market imbalances and intervention efforts and monetary policy. Studies show that the rise of interest rates in China is the main reason for the appreciation of the renminbi, and the effect of interest rate policy in regulating the imbalance of the domestic money market is not good. At the same time, it is found that the independence of China’s monetary policy in currency issuance is weak, while its independence in the interest rate policy is stronger.