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为系统反映评价指标自身属性并和煤与瓦斯突出实际相结合,提高预测和判别的准确性与严谨性,分别建立基于“三率”(突出预测率、突出预测准确率、不突出预测准确率)的“效益、成本型”属性和“区间型”属性的煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标筛选模型,根据现场预测所得数据建立预测与决策的样本矩阵,依据不同属性进行算子转换构造决策矩阵,采用成分提取确定决策矩阵中各评价指标的权重,作出各预测指标的排序.研究结果表明:张集煤矿煤与瓦斯突出预测的敏感指标是钻屑瓦斯解析指标、钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度.研究结论能将开采煤层实际突出率引入评价系统中,又能使各指标之间的区分更加明显.
In order to reflect the attribute of the evaluation index system and combine with the actuality of coal and gas outburst, the accuracy and rigor of the forecasting and discrimination are improved, and the “three rates” based on the “three rates” The model of forecasting and decision-making based on the data of on-site forecast is established, which is based on the different attributes Subconversions construct decision matrices and determine the weight of each evaluation index in the decision matrix by using component extraction to make a ranking of each prediction index.The results show that the sensitive index of coal and gas outburst prediction in Zhangji coal mine is the gas methane analysis index of drill cuttings, Gas emission initial velocity.The research conclusion can introduce the actual protruding rate of the coal seam into the evaluation system and make the distinction between each index more obvious.