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有些文献指出:“赤潮发生起因因种而异,但大体上气候气象条件诸如温度、风力、风向,季风转换、气压等;海况、潮汐、流等以及海水的理化特征,如盐度、营养元素等,这些皆会成为某种赤潮爆发的因子或诱导因素[1]”。根据赤潮监控区监测资料分析:在南海赤潮多发区,海水富营养化条件已经具备,因此气象、水文要素条件就成为赤潮爆发的重要启动因子,而天气环流的维持与变化决定了气象、水文要素因子的稳定与变化,再根据赤潮生物培养试验,从初期繁殖到后期的爆发性繁殖,直至达到赤潮生物密度,这一过程一般都需要4~5d的时间。针对这一现象,通过对近10a的赤潮发生个例进行统计分析,统计其生成前期的天气环流形势和水文气象要素,分析出赤潮生成前期的环流模式和筛选出诱发赤潮爆发的重要因子,并依此来作为预报赤潮生成的方法,依照此方法对2003年的赤潮进行预报,其效果是另人满意的。
Some documents pointed out: "The causes of red tide vary with species, but generally the climatic and meteorological conditions such as temperature, wind, wind direction, monsoon conversion, air pressure and so on; sea conditions, tides, currents and other physical and chemical characteristics of sea water such as salinity, Etc., all of which will become a factor or inducing factor for some kind of red tide outbreak [1]. According to the monitoring data of the monitoring area for red tide occurrence, the eutrophication conditions of seawater are already available in the frequent occurrence areas of red tide in the South China Sea. Therefore, the meteorological and hydrological factors have become the important initiating factors for the occurrence of red tide outburst. The maintenance and change of the weather circulation determine the meteorological and hydrological elements Factors of stability and changes, and then according to the red tide biological culture experiments, from the initial breeding to the latter part of the explosive reproduction until it reaches the density of red tide organisms, the process generally require 4 ~ 5d time. In response to this phenomenon, a statistical analysis was made on a few cases of occurrence of red tide in recent ten years, and the weather circulation and hydrometeorological elements in the early stage of their production were analyzed. The circulation pattern of the early stage of red tide generation and the important factor for the outbreak of red tide induced were analyzed. Therefore, as a method of forecasting the formation of red tides, the forecast of red tides in 2003 according to this method is satisfactory.