樊纲认为,“非典”迄今为止的传染率和死亡率,比起人类已知的许多疫病,其实是很低的(见医学专家们的分析),但人们之所以大量减少经济活动,主要就是人们不知道这种疫病的传染方式、预防方法和医治办法。正是这种“不确定性”,导致人们的不安全感与传染率、死亡率不成比例,从而采取比防范其他疫病更加谨慎的预防行为。也就是说,在这个阶段上,人们倾向于“小事做大”——为了避免很小概率的事件发生,采取很大范围的防范措施。这时,政府作为一种公众机构应该怎么办,应该如何针对这种行为而采取政策以提高经济效率? 符合经济逻辑的政策建议是:第一,信息越公开、越充分越好。不确定 Fan Gang believes that so far the SARS rate of infection and death rate are actually very low compared with many diseases known to mankind (see the analysis of medical experts), but the main reason why people reduce their economic activities is mainly that people I do not know the mode of transmission, prevention and treatment of this disease. It is this “uncertainty” that causes people’s insecurity to be disproportionately linked to infection rates and mortality rates, thereby taking more precautionary measures than preventing other epidemics. In other words, at this stage, people tend to “small things bigger” - in order to avoid a very small probability of incidents, take a wide range of preventive measures. At this time, what should the government do as a public body? How should the government adopt policies to improve its economic efficiency? The policy recommendations in line with economic logic are: First, the more open and the better the information. uncertain