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在实际经济中,利率作为一个重要因素不仅影响宏观经济,对股票市场也将产生影响,因为利率既是一个经济内生变量,又是一个政策变量。作为经济变量,利率的变动将引起宏观经济环境、公司经营业绩等因素的变动,而对股票价格产生多重影响:作为政策变量,利率的调整无疑将改变投资者对政策的预期。利好或利空性往往被放大而对股票价格产生作用。本文运用趋势分析、弹性分析和相关性分析方法,从实证角度考察利率变动对我国股市的影响。
In the real economy, the interest rate as an important factor not only affects the macroeconomy, but also affects the stock market. Interest rate is not only an endogenous variable but also a policy variable. As economic variables, changes in interest rates will lead to changes in the macroeconomic environment, the company’s operating performance and other factors, which have multiple impacts on stock prices: as a policy variable, interest rate adjustment will undoubtedly change investors’ expectations of the policy. Good or bad bearishness is often magnified and has a bearing on stock prices. This article uses trend analysis, elasticity analysis and correlation analysis methods to examine the impact of interest rate changes on China’s stock market from an empirical point of view.