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为了定量评估电网作业和运行的风险,提出了一种基于5M因素分析法和多元线性回归的供电作业人身事故危害预测方法。借鉴安全行为学、安全心理学和事故致因理论,首先将供电作业中影响人身安全的因素分成5个大类,即人、设备、材料、方法和环境。然后分析所有因素间的相关性,将相关性较强的影响因素中对人身事故危害程度弱的一方剔除,并采用南方某电网公司人身伤亡事故数据为例进行分析,删除了两个人身安全影响因素:工器具配置和作业性质。继而,采用多元线性回归法建立供电作业人身事故危害值与各人身安全影响因素间的关系,对供电作业人身事故危害值进行预测。最后,以南方该电网公司2003~2013年发生的64起供电作业事故验证所提方法的有效性和准确性。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of power grid operation and operation, a 5M factor analysis and multivariate linear regression are proposed to predict the personal accident hazard of power supply operation. Using the theories of safety behavior, safety psychology and accident cause, this paper divides the factors affecting personal safety in power supply into five categories: people, equipment, materials, methods and environment. Then the correlation between all the factors was analyzed. Among the influential factors, the one with less risk of personal injury was eliminated and the data of casualties of a certain company in the southern power grid were taken as an example to analyze. Two personal safety factors Tool configuration and job properties. Then, using multiple linear regression method to establish the relationship between the risk of personal accident hazards and the factors affecting personal safety, and forecasting the value of personal accident hazards in power supply operations. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified by 64 power supply operation accidents occurred in the grid company of the South from 2003 to 2013.