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研究了市场需求随机且受零售商努力行为因素影响的情形下过度自信零售商的决策问题。通过模型推导得到过度自信零售商的最优订货量和最优销售努力水平,讨论了过度自信零售商与理性零售商在最优订货量和最优销售努力水平上的偏差。通过比较静态分析,研究了零售商的过度自信水平对其最优订货量和最优销售努力水平的影响,对需求方差进行了敏感性分析,分析了市场环境参数对零售商最优决策的影响。结果显示:当零售商面临低收益市场环境或更高收益市场环境时,过度自信行为可促使零售商做出趋近于理性决策的选择。
This paper studies the decision-making problems of overconfidence retailers under the condition that the market demand is random and affected by the hard-working factors of retailers. Through the model derivation, the optimal order quantity and the optimal sales effort of overconfident retailers are obtained, and the deviations of overconfidence retailers and rational retailers in the optimal order quantity and optimal sales effort are discussed. Through the comparative static analysis, the influence of retailers ’overconfidence level on the optimal order quantity and the optimal sales effort level is studied. The sensitivity analysis of the variance of demand and the influence of market environment parameters on the retailers’ optimal decision-making . The results show that when retailers face low-yield or higher-yield markets, overconfidence can drive retailers to make choices that approach rational decisions.