论文部分内容阅读
改革开放后的经济高速增长是增长潜力被压缩到一个独特的制度转轨进程中的集中释放。增长要素的变化必然带来潜在增长率的明显回落,回落幅度与全要素生产率的变动密切相关。“十三五”时期,释放中西部人口库兹涅茨效应仍有较大潜力,储蓄率的下调幅度有限,改革体现在全要素生产率增长上的实际效果具有较大不确定性,经济潜在增长率在5.7%—7.5%之间。按照保守的增长情景估算,到2024年我国人均收入将达到1.3万美元,跨入高收入国家行业;到2050年将达到3.7万美元,进入中等发达国家行列。实现经济中高速增长的路径是通过体制改革和科技创新,促进提高劳动参与率、释放人口库兹涅茨效应、提升人力资本质量、改善投资效益、推动科技创新、降低制度性交易成本,全面提升全要素生产率,推动经济增长趋近潜在增长率上限。要审慎把握金融市场对外开放的次序和节奏,防止内部失衡与外部冲击叠加共振引发危机。要持续增强基础能力,为追赶型增长后期全要素生产率的增长创造条件,避免落入增长陷阱。
The rapid economic growth after the reform and opening up is the concentrated release of growth potential that has been compressed into a unique system of transition. Changes in growth factors inevitably bring about a significant drop in the potential growth rate, which is closely related to changes in total factor productivity. In the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, there is still great potential for releasing the Kuznets effect in the central and western regions, and the rate of reduction in savings rate is limited. The actual effect of the reform on the growth of total factor productivity is quite uncertain. The economy Potential growth rate of 5.7% -7.5%. According to the conservative growth scenario, China’s per capita income will reach 13,000 U.S. dollars by 2024, and will cross into the industries of high-income countries. By 2050 it will reach 37,000 U.S. dollars and enter the ranks of the medium-sized developed countries. The path to rapid growth in the economy is to promote labor participation through institutional and technological innovation, free up the population Kuznets effect, improve the quality of human capital, improve investment returns, promote technological innovation and reduce institutional transaction costs, Total factor productivity and pushing economic growth closer to the upper limit of potential growth. It is necessary to carefully grasp the order and pace of opening up of financial markets and prevent the internal imbalances from overlapping with external shocks and triggering crises. We should continue to enhance our basic capabilities and create conditions for the growth of total factor productivity in the late stage of catching up and avoid falling into the trap of growth.