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经济形势不明朗和地缘政治引发的政治乃至战争危机交织,构成2010-2012年全球经济动荡的总背景。欧洲主权债务危机扩散,债务成本上升,投资意愿萎缩,影响经济增长。美国债务续增、上限调整尚无定论,引发全球经济新一轮危机恐慌。以人权为借口、以石油等经济利益为动力的美国及北约国家对中东、北非等产油国家的政治干预演变为旷日持久的局部战争。围绕朝鲜半岛的东北亚地缘政治冲突,围绕南海资源的主权纷争加剧。但是除非有战争等突发事件或美国政府债务违约发生,国际经济、贸易仍将保持增长态势,尽管增速下降。
The combination of the uncertain economic situation and the political and war crisis triggered by geopolitics constitutes the overall backdrop to the global economic turmoil of 2010-2012. The spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, rising debt costs and a willingness to invest have shrunk, affecting economic growth. As the U.S. debt continues to increase, the ceiling adjustment has not been finalized yet, triggering a new round of crisis and panic in the global economy. Taking human rights as an excuse, the political intervention by the United States and NATO countries that power the oil and other economic interests on the oil-producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa has evolved into a protracted localized war. Surrounding the geopolitical conflict in Northeast Asia of the Korean Peninsula, the sovereignty dispute over the South China Sea resources has intensified. However, unless there are any emergencies such as war or the U.S. government debt default occurs, the international economy and trade will continue to grow despite the declining growth rate.