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企业资源规划系统(ERP)项目投资具有很大的风险和不确定性,投资决策一直是困扰决策者的难题.ERP项目投资决策是一个带有潜在随机过程和约束条件的多阶段投资决策问题,包含大量内在关联的投资机会.多段随机规划方法可以较好地解决带有潜在随机过程和约束条件的多阶段决策问题,克服了二项式方法和有限微分方法难以求解多段关联复合期权的弊端.运用多段随机整数规划方法结合ERP系统的投资特点建立了基于实物期权的ERP项目投资决策分析模型,设计了合理的模型求解算法.模型很好地考虑了项目投资过程中未来收益和投入成本的不确定性,相对于传统决策评价方法更加适合于ERP投资决策.
Investment in enterprise resource planning system (ERP) project has great risks and uncertainties, and investment decision-making has always been a dilemma for decision makers.ERP project investment decision-making is a multi-stage investment decision problem with potentially stochastic processes and constraints, Which contains a lot of intrinsically related investment opportunities.Multi-stage stochastic programming method can solve the multi-stage decision-making problem with potential stochastic processes and constraints, and overcomes the disadvantages of the binomial method and finite-difference method in solving multi-staged associative compound options. Using multi-stochastic integer programming method combined with the investment characteristics of ERP system, this paper established an investment decision analysis model of ERP project based on real option and designed a reasonable algorithm for model solving.The model well considered the future return on investment and input costs in the process of project investment Certainty, relative to the traditional decision-making evaluation method is more suitable for ERP investment decisions.