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新经济的前景远大,但体量太小,不足以改变中国经济的运行轨迹。尤其当中国的大部分资产价格存在泡沫,去杠杆、去产能和去库存压力巨大的情况下,要期望经济从L型走势变为U型,难度很大。2015年年报和2016年季报的数据都已公布,A股市场拥有2800多家上市公司,其最新财务汇总数据,应该能够反映中国企业的经营状况。企业是一国经济的基本元素,企业强则国家强;若只是GDP扩大而企业不强,那么,国家仍然大而不强。本文试图透过企业的财报,寻找中国经济是否见底的依据。利润增速短期触底回升:长期难持续根据海通策略研究团队的统计,A
The prospects for the new economy are lofty, but the volume is too small to change the trajectory of China’s economy. Especially when most of China’s asset prices are subject to bubbles, deleveraging, de-capacity and huge pressure on inventories, it is very difficult to expect the economy to move from L-type to U-type. Both the 2015 Annual Report and the 2016 Quarterly Bulletin have been published. The A-share market has more than 2,800 listed companies and its latest financial summary data should reflect the operating conditions of Chinese companies. Enterprises are the basic elements of a country’s economy, strong enterprises is the country strong; if only GDP growth and enterprises are not strong, then the country is still big and not strong. This article tries to find out whether the Chinese economy bottomed out through the earnings of enterprises. Short-term profit growth bottomed out: the long-term difficult to sustain According to the statistics of the Haitong strategy research team, A