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为探索矿工风险感知偏差的形成及演化过程,在文献研究和复杂适应系统理论分析的基础上,结合多主体建模与仿真(ABMS)方法,构建矿工风险感知偏差演化模型。运用Net Logo仿真平台,通过调节组织、管理者、矿工的不同行为主体属性值,模拟组织安全文化建设水平、安全管理规范水平及风险信息处理能力对矿工风险感知偏差的动态演化过程的影响。结果表明,矿工风险感知偏差演化系统是典型的复杂适应系统(CAS);各仿真主体属性交互影响矿工风险感知偏差,且不同属性的影响程度有所差异。因此,煤炭企业应考虑各种因素的作用效果,有针对性地调节各主体行为,降低矿工风险感知偏差程度。
In order to explore the formation and evolution process of miners’ risk perception bias, based on the literature research and the theory of complex adaptive system, an evolutionary model of risk perception bias for miners was constructed based on the multi-agent modeling and simulation (ABMS) method. By using the Net Logo simulation platform, the influence of risk behaviors of the miners on the dynamic evolution of the miners’ perceptions of risk is simulated by adjusting the different attribute values of the organization, managers and miners, simulating the level of construction of safety culture, level of safety management norms and ability of risk information processing. The results show that the evolutionary system of risk perception bias of miners is a typical complex adaptive system (CAS). The simulation subject attributes influence the risk perception bias of miners, and the influence of different attributes is different. Therefore, the coal enterprises should consider the effect of various factors, adjust the behavior of each subject in a targeted manner and reduce the degree of deviation of risk perception of miners.