兔年转眼已经过半,股市并没有如年初许多券商机构所寄望的那样,所谓“维持牛市”、“最高将达4200点”等各式预判,更未出现乐观者认为的“向6000点挺进”。时隔半年,这些美妙的梦想已被迅速下挫的股指击得粉碎,人们纷纷由乐观转为悲观。现实中的股市指数表现恰恰验证了我们在2009年底所发表的结论,即“3300～3600点是未来两年大顶”。目前,我们对股市近一两年内的表现依然抱相对保守谨慎的态度,这主要基于对宏观形势的预期依然无法乐观。我们认为,必须待这轮经济周期的阵痛缓解或治愈之后,股市才有一轮像样的表现。今天,本着技术交流或学术探讨的态度,将就宏观形势解 The Year of the Rabbit has been more than half the time, the stock market and not as early as many brokerage agencies hope that the so-called “to maintain the bullish ”, “up to 4200 ” and other pre-sentence, but did not appear optimistic that “To 6000 points forward ”. After a lapse of six months, these wonderful dreams have been shattered by the rapidly falling stock index, and people have been turned from optimism to pessimism. The actual performance of the stock market index just verified our conclusion at the end of 2009 that “3300 ~ 3600 points are the top two years to come”. At present, we are still relatively conservative and cautious about the performance of the stock market in the past year or two, mainly based on the still unpredictable expectations of the macroeconomic situation. We think the stock market will have to have a decent performance after the pain of this round of economic cycle has been alleviated or healed. Today, in the attitude of technological exchanges or academic discussions, the macroeconomic situation will be solved