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中国目前处于2002年以来这一轮产能周期的末端,新的一轮周期尚未开始。因此,较大规模的牛市在中短期内出现的可能性较小。放眼十年,中国未来还会有大的牛市,但不太可能在今明年出现,甚至不会在两三年内出现。
China is currently at the end of this round of capacity cycle since 2002, and the new cycle has not yet begun. Therefore, the larger bull market is less likely to appear in the short to medium term. Looking ahead to the next decade, there will be a big bull market in the future but it is unlikely to emerge this year or even in the next two to three years.