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本文利用土地生产模型基于人口增长率、国民生产总值增长率和农业生产率的增长率来 预测尼泊尔国家,Chitwan地区,Jutpani村的森林破坏的面积与趋势。在研究中如果上述各项 增长率保持目前水平不变，通过土地生产模型的模拟，研究区域的所有林业用地将以每年24 %的速率在2038年全部变为农业用地；假设自给作物生产率每年按1%增长，经济作物按2%增 长，则每年林业用地转换为农业用地的速率降低为17%，但到2038年可能只留有124公顷的森 林。因此农业生产率是影响森林破坏的主要因素，加强农业管理极为重要。
In this paper, the land production model is used to predict the area and trend of forest destruction in Nepal, Chitwan and Jutpani villages based on the population growth rate, GDP growth rate and agricultural productivity growth rate. In the study, if the above growth rates keep the current level unchanged, all the forestry land in the study area will be fully converted to agricultural land at a rate of 24% per annum by 2038 through the simulation of the land production model; assuming that the annual productivity of self-sustaining crops is 1% growth and 2% cash crops, the annual conversion rate of forestry land to agricultural land will be reduced to 17%. However, by 2038, there may be only 124 hectares of forest left. Therefore, agricultural productivity is the main factor affecting the destruction of forests. Strengthening agricultural management is extremely important.