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Dr. Gwinyayi Dzinesa
the people of Zimbabwe cast their votes in a general election on July 31， 2013 in the hope of ending the shaky coalition government comprising the ZANu-PF led by President Robert Mugabe， the Mdc-t led by Prime Minister Morgan tsvangirai and the Mdc led by industry and commerce Minister welshman Ncube. According to the presidential election results， released by the Zimbabwe election commission （Zec） on August 3， Mugabe won by a landslide 61.1 percent of the vote to extend his 33-year rule. Meanwhile， tsvangirai of the Mdc-t won 33.9 percent. Dr. Gwinyayi Dzinesa， senior researcher at the institute for security studies in Pretoria， examines what this result means for Zimbabwe going forward：
AS expected， Morgan Tsvangirai swiftly denounced the election results as “null and void” vowing to challenge the results in court and calling for new elections， while the African Union （AU） declared the vote“free and credible，” but said it wanted more information about reported irregularities.
Monitors from the Southern African Development Community（SADC） said that though the election was “free and peaceful，” it was too early to declare it “fair.” Furthermore， South Africa， whose President Jacob Zuma was SADC’s facilitator， along with other regional countries such as Tanzania， which currently chairs SADC’s security body the Organ Troika， and Namibia， endorsed the vote.
Ongoing Western concerns about the credibility of the elections due to electoral irregularities reported by domestic and regional observers include from Australia， Britain， the EU and the United States. Australia went as far as calling for a re-run of the polls.
The Chinese observer mission endorsed Zimbabwe’s polls， urging political parties to accept results.
However， given the AU and SADC apparent endorsement of the elections and the perceived partisan nature of Zimbabwe’s court system and security agencies， ZANU-PF’s victory and regaining its political hegemony appear a fait accompli. This is likely to herald an end to the country’s election mode， its economic policy coordination， and the paralysis of the unwieldy coalition government which both Mugabe and Tsvangirai conceded is dysfunctional.
ZANU-PF’s victory is bound to significantly impact the Zimbabwean economy， which the World Bank estimates is ranked at a lowly 125th worldwide in terms of size.The benchmark Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Industrial Index reportedly plummeted 11 percent after the poll results were announced， and there is concern that ZANU-PF may intensify the implementation of the indigenization and empowerment law， compelling foreign-owned companies operating in Zimbabwe to sell controlling stakes to locals. The party is reportedly proposing to generate a secondary stock exchange exclusively for indigenous Zimbabweans to buy shares in foreign-owned businesses， as part of its strategy for the implementation of its election manifesto while countering possible negative foreign investor sentiment.
There is concern that the recently approved International Monetary Fund’s （IMF） Staff-Monitored Program（SMP） for Zimbabwe， covering the period April-December 2013， could be derailed by a ZANU-PF government， especially amidst alleged looting of the country’s diamond revenues. The SMP includes putting public finances on a sustainable course and increas-ing diamond revenue transparency. Significantly， the successful implementation of the SMP， the country’s first IMF agreement in more than a decade， would be an important stepping-stone toward helping Zimbabwe re-engage with the international community program， settle its $10.7 billion debt and become eligible for new external borrowing.
The elected ZANU-PF government could conversely moderate the implementation of its indigenization and empowerment policy. It could implement some reforms to shed its pariah status on the international stage and attract new foreign direct investment， which Zimbabwe needs to create jobs and raise production levels. The nature of the reforms would depend on the intra-party politics and succession battles between hardliners against moderates.
Meanwhile， the EU， which had said it would take its cue from SADC regarding the credibility of the elections， just like the United States， issued a nuanced preliminary statement raising concern at the reported electoral flaws. These members of the Western international community had expressed their readiness to work with any government formed as the result of a peaceful， transparent and credible electoral process. However， like Australia， they may decide to retain their remaining sanctions （travel bans and financial measures against individuals and companies）， rather than adopt a“constructive engagement” approach with a ZANU-PF government perceived to have come to power as a culmination of a flawed electoral process.
In this case the ZANU-PF government would continue its “Look East” foreign policy strategy which could see increased Chinese involvement in Zimbabwe’s economy particularly in the mining， agriculture， and infrastructure sectors.
the people of Zimbabwe cast their votes in a general election on July 31， 2013 in the hope of ending the shaky coalition government comprising the ZANu-PF led by President Robert Mugabe， the Mdc-t led by Prime Minister Morgan tsvangirai and the Mdc led by industry and commerce Minister welshman Ncube. According to the presidential election results， released by the Zimbabwe election commission （Zec） on August 3， Mugabe won by a landslide 61.1 percent of the vote to extend his 33-year rule. Meanwhile， tsvangirai of the Mdc-t won 33.9 percent. Dr. Gwinyayi Dzinesa， senior researcher at the institute for security studies in Pretoria， examines what this result means for Zimbabwe going forward：
AS expected， Morgan Tsvangirai swiftly denounced the election results as “null and void” vowing to challenge the results in court and calling for new elections， while the African Union （AU） declared the vote“free and credible，” but said it wanted more information about reported irregularities.
Monitors from the Southern African Development Community（SADC） said that though the election was “free and peaceful，” it was too early to declare it “fair.” Furthermore， South Africa， whose President Jacob Zuma was SADC’s facilitator， along with other regional countries such as Tanzania， which currently chairs SADC’s security body the Organ Troika， and Namibia， endorsed the vote.
Ongoing Western concerns about the credibility of the elections due to electoral irregularities reported by domestic and regional observers include from Australia， Britain， the EU and the United States. Australia went as far as calling for a re-run of the polls.
The Chinese observer mission endorsed Zimbabwe’s polls， urging political parties to accept results.
However， given the AU and SADC apparent endorsement of the elections and the perceived partisan nature of Zimbabwe’s court system and security agencies， ZANU-PF’s victory and regaining its political hegemony appear a fait accompli. This is likely to herald an end to the country’s election mode， its economic policy coordination， and the paralysis of the unwieldy coalition government which both Mugabe and Tsvangirai conceded is dysfunctional.
ZANU-PF’s victory is bound to significantly impact the Zimbabwean economy， which the World Bank estimates is ranked at a lowly 125th worldwide in terms of size.The benchmark Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Industrial Index reportedly plummeted 11 percent after the poll results were announced， and there is concern that ZANU-PF may intensify the implementation of the indigenization and empowerment law， compelling foreign-owned companies operating in Zimbabwe to sell controlling stakes to locals. The party is reportedly proposing to generate a secondary stock exchange exclusively for indigenous Zimbabweans to buy shares in foreign-owned businesses， as part of its strategy for the implementation of its election manifesto while countering possible negative foreign investor sentiment.
There is concern that the recently approved International Monetary Fund’s （IMF） Staff-Monitored Program（SMP） for Zimbabwe， covering the period April-December 2013， could be derailed by a ZANU-PF government， especially amidst alleged looting of the country’s diamond revenues. The SMP includes putting public finances on a sustainable course and increas-ing diamond revenue transparency. Significantly， the successful implementation of the SMP， the country’s first IMF agreement in more than a decade， would be an important stepping-stone toward helping Zimbabwe re-engage with the international community program， settle its $10.7 billion debt and become eligible for new external borrowing.
The elected ZANU-PF government could conversely moderate the implementation of its indigenization and empowerment policy. It could implement some reforms to shed its pariah status on the international stage and attract new foreign direct investment， which Zimbabwe needs to create jobs and raise production levels. The nature of the reforms would depend on the intra-party politics and succession battles between hardliners against moderates.
Meanwhile， the EU， which had said it would take its cue from SADC regarding the credibility of the elections， just like the United States， issued a nuanced preliminary statement raising concern at the reported electoral flaws. These members of the Western international community had expressed their readiness to work with any government formed as the result of a peaceful， transparent and credible electoral process. However， like Australia， they may decide to retain their remaining sanctions （travel bans and financial measures against individuals and companies）， rather than adopt a“constructive engagement” approach with a ZANU-PF government perceived to have come to power as a culmination of a flawed electoral process.
In this case the ZANU-PF government would continue its “Look East” foreign policy strategy which could see increased Chinese involvement in Zimbabwe’s economy particularly in the mining， agriculture， and infrastructure sectors.