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基于2013年全国8省农户调查数据和2004-2013年全国农成品成本收益面板数据,通过分析化肥在粮食生产中的边际产出与化肥价格的比率,对我国化肥投入是否过量进行评价。研究发现:目前中国化肥施用量已经超过了经济意义上的最优施用量,农民无论是在小麦、玉米和水稻生产上均存在过量施肥的现象,三种粮食作物的平均化肥过量投入程度达到30%以上;而且小麦、玉米的过量施肥程度较水稻更为严重,黄淮海地区和长江中下游地区的过量施肥程度比其他地区严重。该研究结论为国家促进化肥减量施用提供了数据支持。
Based on the survey data of farmers in 8 provinces in China in 2013 and the panel data of national farm products cost-benefit from 2004 to 2013, the author analyzes whether the input of chemical fertilizers is excessive by analyzing the ratio of marginal product to chemical fertilizer price in grain production. The study found that: At present, the amount of chemical fertilizers applied in China has surpassed the optimal application in the economic sense. Farmers are over-fertilized both in the production of wheat, corn and rice. The average amount of over-investment in three kinds of food crops has reached 30 %, And the over-fertilization of wheat and corn is more serious than that of rice. The over-fertilization in Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is more serious than in other regions. The conclusion of the study provided data support for the country to promote the application of chemical fertilizers.