依据灰色系统理论,构造了一个由5个GM(1,1)模型组成的灰色动态模型群,并运用该模型对福建省泉州市用水量变化趋势进行了预测分析。研究表明,灰色动态模型群能够充分利用近期用水量信息预测未来用水量变化趋势;以模型群统计平均值作为最终预测值,避免了单一灰色模型容易利用不稳定信息的缺陷,使得预测精度更加准确,预测结果更为可信。 Based on the gray system theory, a gray dynamic model group composed of five GM (1,1) models is constructed, and the model is used to predict the trend of water consumption in Quanzhou, Fujian Province. The results show that the gray dynamic model group can make full use of the recent water consumption information to predict the trend of future water consumption. The statistical average of the model group is used as the final prediction value to avoid the flaw of the single gray model that the unstable information can be easily used, so that the prediction accuracy is more accurate , The forecast result is more credible.