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中国未来5～10年最主要的风险是失业的扩大。未来中国需要消化的就业人口不仅包括800万尚未找到工作的下岗工人,每年城市的新增就业,还有1亿5千万的待消化的农村剩余劳动力,这造成了巨大的劳动力供给数量。在未来5～10年,如果我们还按现在“增长优先”的模式,一方面社会在发展,产生了一批富有人群,另一方面不断增加的巨大失业人口包括农村剩余劳动力处于社会贫困地位,收入差距急剧拉大,可能对经济和社会造成巨大压力和挑战。从政治层面看,失业的大量增加会使社会不稳定,导致社会风险的产生:从经济层面看,收入两极分化以及大规模贫困人口的存在使社会购买力处于很低水平,内需长期低迷,强大的生产能力只能靠出口来支撑。但世界市场对中国出口产品的吸纳也很有限。因此,高增长、低就业的发展模式是不可持续的。
The main risk to China in the next five to 10 years is the expansion of unemployment. In the future, the number of people in need of digestion in China will not only include 8 million laid-off workers who have not yet found a job, every year new jobs in the city, and 150 million surplus rural labor force to be digested, which has caused a huge supply of labor force. In the next five to 10 years, if we follow the current mode of “priority growth”, on the one hand social development will generate a large group of wealthy people and on the other hand the huge jobless population including the surplus rural labor force will be in a position of social poverty. The widening income gap can cause enormous economic and social pressure and challenges. From a political perspective, a large increase in unemployment will destabilize the society and lead to social risks. From an economic point of view, the polarization of income and the presence of large-scale poor people have made the social purchasing power at a very low level. The domestic demand is sluggish and strong Production capacity can only rely on exports to support. However, the absorption of Chinese export products in the world market is also very limited. Therefore, the development model of high growth and low employment is unsustainable.