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本文在统计权威检索刊物年度累积索引的基础上,采用趋势外推法和指数平滑法对通信、卫星通信和光通信专业的文献量增长趋势进行了定量分析并作出了估值。予测结果是,到2000年,通信、卫星通信和先通信专业的文献量将分别是1983年的三倍、二倍和三倍。如何适应文献量激增的发展趋势,是对科技情报部门提出的严重挑战。
Based on the statistics of the annual cumulative index of authoritative search journals, this paper quantitatively analyzes and valuates the growth trend of documentary literatures in communication, satellite communication and optical communication using trend extrapolation and exponential smoothing. The result of the forecast is that by the year 2000, the volume of literature in communications, satellite communications and pre-communications will be three, two and three times that in 1983 respectively. How to adapt to the tremendous increase in the literature trend is a serious challenge to science and technology intelligence departments.