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通过理论分析和仿真的方法,探析网络舆情中个体网民的“沉默”现象对整个网络舆情演化的影响。基于元胞自动机原理,提出网民在舆情演化中的沉默与发声规则,构建包含网民沉默因素的元胞自动机舆情演化模型,重点仿真研究了网民不同观点的比例和沉默阈值对舆情的影响。研究发现,部分网民的沉默会导致观测到的舆情扭曲实际的舆情:初始占据优势地位的观点在演化中优势被夸大,而处于劣势观点的网民大量保持沉默;个体网民沉默阈值越大,最终沉默的网民比例越小。
Through theoretical analysis and simulation methods, this paper explores the influence of “silent” phenomenon of individual Internet users on the evolution of public opinion in online public opinion. Based on the principle of cellular automaton, this paper proposes the rules of silence and vocalization of Internet users in the evolution of public opinion. The evolution model of the cellular automata public opinion including the silence of netizens is constructed. Emphasis is put on the simulation of the influence of different views of Internet users and silence threshold on public opinion. The study finds that the silence of some Internet users will lead to the fact that the observed public opinions distort the actual public opinion: the initial dominant position is exaggerated in the evolution, while the Internet users in the inferior position keep a lot of silence; the greater the silent threshold of individual Internet users, the final silence The smaller the proportion of Internet users.