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本文基于叶尔羌河卡群水文站1954~2012年流量、降水量数据,采用M-K趋势法和小波周期法定量分析了卡群站近59年年平均流量、年平均降水量的变化趋势、突变分析以及周期性分析。研究结果表明:卡群站1954~2012年平均流量具有上升趋势,但上升趋势不显著,存在着9年左右的小尺度,20年左右的中尺度和26年左右的大尺度三个层次变化周期;卡群站1954~2012年年降水量具有较为显著的上升趋势,存在着4年左右的小尺度,11年左右的中尺度和24年左右的大尺度三个层次变化周期。研究成果对于新疆喀什地区气候变化下的水文序列分析研究提供参考价值。
In this paper, based on the Yalqiang River water level data from 1954 to 2012, we use MK trend method and wavelet period method to quantitatively analyze the annual average flow rate, annual mean precipitation, variation analysis and period Sexual analysis. The results show that the average flow rate from 1954 to 2012 in the card group has an upward trend, but the upward trend is not significant. There are three levels of small scale of about 9 years, a mesoscale of 20 years and a large-scale of 26 years . The annual precipitation in the Qunqun Station from 1954 to 2012 has a significant upward trend. There are three levels of small scale of about 4 years, mesoscale of 11 years and large-scale of 24 years. The research results provide reference value for the hydrological sequence analysis under the climate change in Kashgar in Xinjiang.